UK-listed companies issued 65 profit warnings in the third quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly total in nearly two years, as rising costs, geopolitical uncertainty and weaker demand put pressure on earnings, according to EY-Parthenon.

The total increased from 59 in the second quarter and was the highest since the final quarter of 2024, when 71 warnings were recorded. Almost a fifth (17%) of UK-listed companies issued at least one profit warning in the 12 months to the end of September.

Policy changes and geopolitical uncertainty were cited in 54% of warnings, the highest proportion for this factor in more than 25 years of EY's analysis. The conflict in the Middle East was specifically mentioned in 38% of warnings, while contract and order cancellations or delays featured in the same proportion. Weaker consumer confidence was cited in 20%.

Rising costs were identified as a leading factor in 35% of warnings, the highest quarterly proportion for this cause since the final quarter of 2022. EY-Parthenon said cost and supply chain pressures had remained elevated since the pandemic, with higher expenses increasingly affecting service and manufacturing businesses.

Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon partner and UK&I financial restructuring leader, said: “This is not a conventional economic cycle. For much of the post-war period, the economy followed a familiar demand-led boom-and-bust pattern but, since the pandemic, supply-side disruption including material and labour shortages, energy shocks, tariffs and wider geopolitical disruption has become far more significant.

“With the Autumn Budget around the corner, profit warnings linked to policy change and uncertainty – once concentrated around fiscal events or elections – have become a regular feature of our data. Businesses have shown considerable resilience, but the pace of policy change is making forecasting, investment and capital allocation much harder. In today’s fiscal and financing environment, where many earnings pressures are linked to external shocks or competitive and technological disruption, boards that act early instead of waiting for conditions to improve will retain more options.”

Household goods and home construction recorded the most warnings of any FTSE sector, with eight, including six from listed housebuilders. Housebuilders have issued 14 warnings so far in 2026, surpassing the 10 recorded during the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008.
Industrial support services and construction and materials each recorded six warnings in the third quarter.

Claire Gambles, EY-Parthenon financial restructuring strategy partner, added: "Profit warnings citing cost and supply chain pressures have remained elevated since the pandemic and have now reached their highest level in nearly four years. Housebuilding has become the epicentre of these cost and interest rate pressures.

“The impact of higher costs is becoming increasingly widespread across service and manufacturing sectors. The cumulative stress of weaker conversion, operational pressures and industry transformation means that individually manageable issues are combining to create material earnings challenges."

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